Author: Daniel Chang

The Canadian dollar is projected to recover only slightly from its recent decline over the next year, as concerns over potential U.S. tariffs weigh on Canada’s trade-reliant economy, according to a Reuters poll conducted between December 2 and 4. A survey of 36 foreign exchange analysts revealed a median forecast predicting a modest 0.3% rise in the Canadian dollar, reaching 1.4034 per U.S. dollar (71.26 U.S. cents) within three months. This is a downward revision from the 1.36 level projected in a previous poll. Over the course of a year, the loonie is expected to edge up by 0.4% to…

Asian currencies saw modest gains on Monday, with the Japanese yen strengthening against the dollar after President-elect Donald Trump nominated fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. This move led to a drop in U.S. bond yields and weakened the dollar. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell to 4.351% as investors interpreted Bessent’s nomination as a signal for a more moderate approach on trade tariffs and immigration. The dollar index declined by 0.5% to 106.950, retreating from a two-year high of 108.090 reached last Friday. The Japanese yen strengthened, with the USD/JPY pair down 0.4% after a similar drop last…

JPMorgan has shared its outlook for metal markets, forecasting a challenging start to 2025 but a robust recovery later in the year. The bank anticipates that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could temporarily weigh on base metals early in the year. However, this downturn is expected to reverse as China ramps up economic stimulus efforts and market valuations improve. According to the analysis, base metal prices could face pressure in the short term due to a weakened Chinese yuan and the uncertainty around tariffs. Despite this, the bank sees a promising opportunity for investors in the coming months. Greg Shearer,…

The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as France’s ongoing political turmoil stirred uncertainty, while the South Korean won regained ground after an initial plunge following a brief declaration of martial law. In Europe, heightened concerns over political instability in France added pressure to the euro. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a crucial no-confidence vote over a controversial budget proposal that includes tax increases and spending cuts. Analysts believe the outcome could mark a turning point in the crisis. Despite its struggles, the euro saw a modest rise of 0.1%, trading at $1.0507, as volatility in…

The euro experienced a sharp decline on Monday as political instability in France heightened concerns about the country’s fiscal future. This turmoil comes amid a robust U.S. dollar supported by strong economic data, painting a contrasting picture for the two currencies. The euro dropped 1% to $1.0469, marking its steepest daily loss since early November. Investors were spooked by the risk of a government collapse in France, where far-right National Rally (RN) leader Jordan Bardella hinted at backing a no-confidence motion. This move threatens to derail budget negotiations and delay efforts to reduce France’s growing deficit. Marine Le Pen, a…

Bank of America’s Sell Side Indicator (SSI) remained steady at 56.7% in November, matching its highest point since early 2022. This comes despite the S&P 500 reaching a record high with a 5.9% gain for the month. BofA strategists maintained their equity allocation recommendations, reflecting cautious optimism amid uncertain policy signals. The SSI tracks the average equity allocation recommendations of sell-side strategists for balanced portfolios. While currently in “Neutral” territory, the indicator sits closer to a contrarian “Sell” signal than a “Buy,” being just 1.4 percentage points away from the “Sell” threshold and 5.4 points from the “Buy” level. Historically,…

President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on all imports from China, aiming to pressure the country into stopping the flow of illegal drugs into the United States. In a statement on Truth.Social, Trump said talks with Chinese officials about curbing drug supplies, especially fentanyl, had not been successful. He claimed that illegal drugs were still entering the U.S. at unprecedented levels, primarily through Mexico. Trump stated that the additional tariff would remain in place until the issue is resolved. Trump also suggested he might increase tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 60%, raising concerns…

JPMorgan has released its economic outlook for 2025, outlining two potential scenarios for the U.S. economy. These predictions depend on the policies introduced by the newly elected administration, with a focus on the balance between growth-driven measures and challenges related to trade and regulation. The bank expects GDP growth to slow slightly to 2% in 2025, with unemployment rising to 4.5%. Although job growth may decelerate, layoffs are likely to remain minimal. Reduced immigration could lead to workforce shortages in key sectors, potentially limiting economic growth. JPMorgan highlights two contrasting possibilities. The first is a scenario where tax cuts and…

JPMorgan has projected a significant growth trajectory for the S&P 500, setting its 2025 price target at 6,500. This estimate represents an 8% increase from current levels, driven by a forecasted 10% growth in earnings per share (EPS) to $270 by next year. Key factors supporting this outlook include a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, increased investment in AI-driven initiatives, and broader market participation. The firm also expects smaller companies, particularly those in the Russell 2000 index, to experience a robust recovery, with earnings projected to grow by 40% following a period of decline. In its latest market…

The U.S. dollar weakened on Wednesday as traders analyzed mixed economic data and stayed cautious before the Thanksgiving holiday. Thin trading volumes and concerns about President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans also contributed to the dollar’s decline. Economic reports showed that U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, matching earlier estimates. While this reflected steady economic growth, it did little to increase confidence in another Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Despite this, market expectations for a 25 basis point cut edged up to 67%. Consumer spending data suggested that inflation progress had stalled. The…