Analysts at RBC Global Mining Equities have revised their gold price predictions, expecting a steady increase in the coming years. Their latest projections estimate gold reaching $2,844 per ounce in 2025, slightly higher than their previous forecast of $2,823 per ounce. By 2026, they anticipate a more substantial rise to $3,111 per ounce, marking an 8% increase from their earlier estimate of $2,878 per ounce.
The updated forecast incorporates insights from machine learning (ML) models, factoring in recent market data and minor adjustments to RBC’s evaluation metrics. These predictions assume a stable monetary policy and no economic recession, which could further support price growth beyond $3,100 per ounce by the end of 2025.
While the long-term gold price target of $2,200 per ounce remains unchanged, RBC has raised its medium-term outlook for 2027-2029 by an average of 9%. This adjustment reflects increasing mining costs and the influence of RBC’s proprietary Elements gold price model.
The report also highlights potential upside risks, suggesting gold could hit $3,300 per ounce by late 2025 if a recession leads to significant monetary policy shifts. On the other hand, downside risks remain, with prices possibly dropping to $2,700 per ounce. Both projections represent a $200 increase from previous estimates made in December.
Despite gold equities rising 23% year-to-date, outpacing the 11% gain in gold prices, investor sentiment remains mixed. RBC notes a record pace of outflows from gold equity ETFs, indicating that investor interest in gold stocks is not aligning with current price levels.
However, analysts believe that strong gold prices and ongoing capital return strategies could support gold equities in the long run. While the first half of the year is typically marked by weaker seasonal performance, RBC expects upcoming financial reports to highlight solid free cash flow generation across the sector.
