Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for gold prices, pushing its $3,000 per ounce target to mid-2026. Previously, the investment bank anticipated reaching this milestone by the end of 2025.
The revision reflects updated expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with Goldman now predicting fewer interest rate cuts in 2025. Economists at the bank foresee a reduction of 75 basis points instead of the earlier projection of 100 basis points. This slower pace of rate cuts is expected to temper demand for gold-backed ETFs, delaying the anticipated price surge.
In a research note released Monday, Goldman Sachs stated, “We now expect gold to rise approximately 14% to $3,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026, compared to our earlier projection of December 2025. By the end of 2025, we estimate prices will reach $2,910 per ounce.”
Central bank demand remains a cornerstone of the bank’s bullish outlook, contributing to an expected 12% increase in gold prices by mid-2026. However, weaker than expected flows into gold ETFs, particularly after the U.S. elections, have tempered price expectations. Speculative demand, which peaked in anticipation of the elections, has since cooled, keeping prices relatively stable.
Goldman Sachs emphasized the role of structural factors in supporting gold prices, particularly the ongoing trend of elevated central bank purchases. Following the freezing of Russian assets, central bank buying surged, with average monthly purchases expected to remain at 38 tonnes through mid-2026, more than double pre-2022 levels.
Despite the positive outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted risks to their forecast. A prolonged period of higher interest rates poses the biggest downside risk, while a potential U.S. recession or unexpected Federal Reserve rate cuts could push prices beyond the $3,000 mark.
