Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its gold forecast, now anticipating the precious metal could soar to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025. The move reflects growing concerns about the health of the U.S. economy, especially as tensions with China escalate into a full-blown trade conflict.
This marks the third upward revision from Goldman this year. In March, the investment banking giant raised its 2025 target from $2,700 to $3,300, and now it sees even more upside. The bank cited rising demand for gold both in physical form and through exchange-traded funds as investors flock to safer assets.
In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs warned that in a worst-case scenario, where economic risks intensify further, gold prices could even breach $4,500 per ounce by late 2025. The bank emphasized gold’s traditional role as a hedge during periods of financial uncertainty, particularly as fears of a U.S. recession grow stronger.
Fueling these concerns is a rapidly intensifying trade war between the U.S. and China. Over the past week, Washington raised tariffs on Chinese goods to a combined rate of 145%, prompting a swift retaliation from Beijing, which imposed duties of up to 125% on American exports. This tit-for-tat exchange has rattled global markets and increased the appeal of gold as a safe haven.
Adding to the economic jitters, President Donald Trump announced sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on major U.S. trading partners. Although their implementation was delayed by 90 days, a blanket 10% tariff has already taken effect, with more targeted measures on electronics and pharmaceuticals reportedly on the way.
As a result of these developments, gold surged to a historic peak of $3,245.69 per ounce last week. The spike underscores strong investor demand, both from individual buyers and institutional holders through ETFs.
Central banks, particularly in Asia, have also been ramping up their gold reserves in recent months. This buying trend highlights a broader global effort to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and prepare for potential turbulence ahead especially as uncertainty around American economic policy under the Trump administration continues to deepen.
