Tesla is expected to reveal its fourth-quarter 2024 delivery numbers on January 2, according to a report by UBS. Analysts at the firm predict Tesla will deliver approximately 510,000 vehicles, reflecting a 5% increase year-over-year and a 10% rise compared to the previous quarter.
This estimate is slightly below the Visible Alpha consensus of 512,000 but falls within investor expectations, which range from 500,000 to 510,000 vehicles. UBS analysts pointed out that, due to Tesla’s evolving AI-driven strategy, delivery numbers may not carry the same weight in influencing the company’s stock performance as they have in the past.
Beyond vehicle deliveries, Tesla’s energy storage segment is also attracting attention. UBS projects energy storage deployments of 9.1 GWh for the quarter, marking a significant 32% sequential increase. While this estimate closely aligns with Visible Alpha’s 9.6 GWh forecast, UBS cautioned that energy storage figures can be unpredictable due to their inherent variability.
After the delivery report, attention will shift to Tesla’s earnings call later in January. UBS anticipates that investors will focus on Elon Musk’s comments about 2025 projections and AI advancements rather than purely on financial results. Tesla has set ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for 20-30% growth in unit deliveries, which would translate to 2.2 to 2.4 million vehicles. These figures surpass both UBS and consensus estimates of 1.9 and 2.0 million units, respectively. The introduction of new models, including an affordable vehicle and an updated Model Y, is expected to contribute to this growth.
Regionally, UBS notes differing trends in Tesla’s performance. Steady growth in China has been supported by promotional activities, while Europe has seen slower growth due to reduced exports. In the U.S., deliveries have remained largely flat, with potential changes to EV tax credits adding uncertainty to near-term demand.
This upcoming report will provide important insights into Tesla’s trajectory as it continues to navigate an increasingly competitive electric vehicle market.
