UBS has adjusted its outlook for the Czech koruna, predicting a slight weakening against the euro in the coming quarters despite recent gains. Optimistic developments in Europe, including Ukraine ceasefire discussions, the absence of new tariffs on European goods, and expected fiscal spending increases in Germany and the EU, have supported the koruna’s strength.
However, UBS analysts warn that the Czech economy—highly dependent on manufacturing and trade—remains vulnerable to potential tariff risks. They anticipate that trade tensions could return, leading to a softer koruna over time.
As a result, UBS has revised its EUR/CZK forecasts. The new projections place the exchange rate at 25.4 in Q2 2025(previously 25.7), 25.6 in Q3 2025 (down from 25.8), and 25.8 for both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
