As Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) prepares to release its second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2025 on August 28, investor attention is likely to be centered on management’s comments about potential delays in the launch of the next-generation Blackwell (BW) chip. While the company’s guidance figures will still be important, the outlook for the BW chip could overshadow these numbers.
According to Stifel analysts, recent discussions with industry insiders suggest that any delays in the Blackwell chip’s release are expected to be measured in months rather than quarters. In the meantime, demand for Nvidia’s H-Series chips remains robust, which bodes well for the company’s upcoming earnings report.
Stifel anticipates that Nvidia will once again deliver strong results, possibly exceeding expectations and raising its guidance. The analysts do not expect any significant changes in Nvidia’s messaging, which has focused on its long-term roadmap and continued investment in both organic growth and collaborative software initiatives since the company last reported its earnings.
In addition to this, recent comments from companies in the optical transceiver module supply chain indicate that rapidly increasing cluster sizes could provide Nvidia with a strategic advantage as it heads into 2025.
Meanwhile, UBS analysts have expressed optimism about Nvidia’s upcoming earnings, particularly regarding the company’s data center segment. They predict that Nvidia could report data center revenues as high as $26 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $25 billion.
The bullish sentiment is supported by strong performance in several areas: SMCI’s results driven by Hopper demand, quarter-over-quarter growth in high-performance computing at TSMC, positive results in KYEC’s data processing segment, and strong AI server sales from Quanta Computer. However, data from Taiwan’s data processing exports suggests a potentially lower figure, though analysts caution that this data is historically variable and may not fully capture Nvidia’s key revenue streams, such as the H20 ramp in China and networking.
Looking ahead, UBS expects strong demand for Nvidia’s Hopper and H200 chips to guide the company toward revenue of $31-32 billion, with data center revenue possibly reaching close to $28 billion. While the Street’s revenue expectations are around $31.5 billion, which might not create an ideal setup, UBS analysts believe that the commentary on the Blackwell chip will be the key focus for investors. They expect Nvidia to communicate that the Blackwell chip is “on track” despite recent delays.
The primary concern remains how Nvidia will address its earlier statement about expecting “significant” revenue from the Blackwell chip this year. Analysts now believe this expectation may have been overly ambitious, given that customer volume shipments, originally planned for mid-December, have been delayed by 4-6 weeks.
