UBS: Tariffs Could Strengthen USD, Favoring AUD/NZD and CHF/NOK Trades
UBS analysts believe tariff concerns—especially involving Colombia—could drive the U.S. dollar higher. They point to stronger U.S. economic growth and diverging monetary policies as key reasons for this expected strength. As part of their currency strategy, UBS recommends going long on the Australian Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar (AUD/NZD) and shorting the Swiss Franc against the Norwegian Krone (CHF/NOK). While recent market […]
US Dollar Drops Following Report of Potential Trump Tariff Delay
The US dollar fell sharply on Monday after reports suggested President-elect Donald Trump may delay imposing trade tariffs initially expected soon after his inauguration. The unexpected news unsettled markets that had anticipated swift action on trade, which had fueled the dollar’s rise since Trump’s November election victory. By 09:20 ET (14:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, […]
UBS Recommends Long USD/CNY Strategy Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration
UBS has advised its clients to adopt a long position on the USD/CNY currency pair, citing potential policy risks tied to Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration. In a January 16 research note, the bank emphasized the significance of the event amid a relatively quiet week for economic data. While Trump’s initial policies remain uncertain, UBS analysts […]
Yen Rally Expected in 2025, But Substantial Gains Unlikely: Capital Economics
The Japanese yen has gained strength recently, boosted by falling U.S. Treasury yields. Analysts at Capital Economics predict the currency will continue to appreciate modestly through 2025. By 10:20 ET (15:20 GMT) on January 16, the USD/JPY pair had dropped 0.4%, trading at ¥155.74, just above its weakest point since December 19. The yen’s rise […]
Bank of America Highlights Changes in Indian Rupee Volatility Amid RBI Policy Shift
Bank of America (BofA) analysts have observed a noticeable shift in the behavior and volatility of the Indian Rupee (INR), pointing to changes in how the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) manages the currency. According to the report, the RBI has transitioned from relying heavily on foreign exchange reserves to stabilize domestic monetary conditions. Instead, […]
UBS Predicts Dollar Rally to Ease in Second Half of 2025
The U.S. dollar has kicked off 2025 with impressive gains, hovering near multi-decade highs. However, UBS strategists anticipate a shift in the second half of the year, as they believe the greenback is now significantly overvalued. “Although the dollar has continued to strengthen in early 2025, we expect the year to unfold in two distinct […]
Yen Faces Pressure from Possible Upside in U.S. Inflation Data, Says BofA
The Japanese yen has managed to hold steady against the dollar despite the greenback’s recent rally, benefiting from its reputation as a safe-haven currency during market sell-offs. However, this resilience may waver if U.S. inflation data, set to be released later this week, comes in higher than expected, according to analysts from BofA Global Research. […]
Is It Time to Bet Against the Dollar? Analysts Suggest the ‘Trump Trade’ May Be Fully Priced In
The U.S. dollar recently soared to multi-year highs, prompting some analysts to argue that the currency’s latest rally has already accounted for the so-called “Trump Trade,” leaving limited upside potential and opening the door for bearish positions on the greenback. On Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.5% to 109.67, briefly touching 109.91—a level not […]
Bank of America Predicts Stronger Dollar Through 2025, Euro and Franc Expected to Lag
Bank of America analysts have updated their long-term projections for the U.S. dollar, now forecasting a stronger performance through the end of 2025. This shift follows recent U.S. election results, which have altered the broader consensus among currency experts. While previous outlooks were bearish on the dollar for the latter part of 2024, sentiment has […]
US Dollar Overvalued Amid Historic Highs, Says BoA Securities
Bank of America Securities has described the US dollar as “priced for perfection” following its sharp rally since the most recent presidential election. The currency reached a 55-year high in real effective terms by the end of 2024, continuing an upward trend that began in mid-2011. Analysts at BoA noted that in nominal terms, the […]